Health Forecasting at UCLA

About Us

Dr. Jonathan E. Fielding, Principal Investigator
Jonathan Fielding is the Director of the Center for Health Advancement at the UCLA Fielding School of Public Health. He is the Director of Public Health for Los Angeles County where he is responsible for the full range of public health activities for ten million county residents. Dr. Fielding received his M.D., M.A. (History of Science) and M.P.H. from Harvard University and his M.B.A. from the Wharton School of Business Administration at the University of Pennsylvania.

Dr. David Hayes Bautista, Co-Principal Investigator
David Hayes-Bautista is currently a Professor of Medicine and Director of the Center for the Study of Latino Health and Culture at the UCLA David Geffen School of Medicine. His research focuses on the dynamics and processes of the Latino population’s health using quantitative data sets and qualitative observations. He utilizes his research to teach medical students, residents and practicing providers to manage health care of a Latino patient base effectively, efficiently and economically. Dr. Hayes-Bautista completed his undergraduate studies at UC Berkeley and completed his M.A. and Ph.D. in Medical Sociology at the University of California Medical Center, San Francisco.

Dr. Gerald Kominski, Co-Principal Investigator

Gerald Kominski is a Professor of Health Services and Director of the UCLA Center for Health Policy Research. Dr. Kominski’s research focuses on evaluating the cost and cost-effectiveness of medical programs and technologies, with a particular emphasis on Medicare payment policies for hospitals and physicians. His other research interests include estimating the financial impacts of alternative approaches to health care reform and improving access and health outcomes among ethnic and vulnerable populations. Dr. Kominski received his Ph.D. in Public Policy Analysis from the University of Pennsylvania.


Dr. Lu Shi, Research Scientist
Lu Shi develops and performs microsimulation modeling for Health Forecasting's projects. He reviews literature for available estimates and distribution functions, estimates the parameters unavailable in previous studies, and improves the model applicability in various areas of health research. Dr. Shi's  research focuses on prevention and early detection of chronic diseases. His other research interests include comparing different approaches to health care reform and improving health communication among disadvantaged populations. Dr. Shi received his Ph.D. in Public Policy Analysis from the F.S. Pardee RAND Graduate School, where he worked on several projects with the RAND Corporations's Health Division. For a listing of Dr. Shi's publications, click here.

Peggy Vadillo Orenstein M.P.P., Research Analyst

Peggy V. Orenstein is the UniHealth Foundation community benefits study project manager. She compiles data from various sources, reviews literature for health estimates, and prepares the data and input parameters for the simulation model. She is also the liaison with partner hospitals. In this role, she works with hospitals to design a simulation model that reflects the needs and priorities of their service planning area. She writes content and designs Health Forecasting materials for hospitals to use as a decision-support tool to inform their community benefit reporting requirements. She is also Health Forecasting's communication specialist. In this capacity, she writes content for the website, prepares and disseminates newsletters, and maintains the social media presence. Peggy completed her bachelor's degree in political science and advertising from the University of Southern California (USC). She received her master's degree in Public Policy from the USC Price School of Policy, where she specialized in strategic communication of policy and program evaluation.  

Dr. Jeroen van Meijgaard, Consultant

Jeroen van Meijgaard has directed the feasibility, prototype development, and user interface development from the early stages of the Health Forecasting project. He led and conducted research and analysis of the causal linkages between the social, economic, environmental, and behavioral determinants of health across population groups. Dr. van Meijgaard led the modeling efforts to build a framework that provides sufficient flexibility to include a large number of factors and outcomes. He directs model enhancements and dissemination efforts and is responsible for the overall project management. He is proficient in econometrics and statistics including limited dependent variable models survival analysis, multivariate analysis, microsimulation and other statistical tools. Prior to joining the UCLA Health Forecasting team Dr. van Meijgaard worked at McKinsey & Company, Inc. advising top-level executive management of Fortune 500 companies on various tactical and operational issues. Specializing in strategy, corporate finance, and growth and business building, he has worked with various companies including HealthCare and Technology businesses. Dr. van Meijgaard received his Ph.D. in Health Services Research from UCLA.




Current Health Forecasting Advisory Committee

Dr. Richard J. Burton
County Health Officer
Placer County Department of Health

Dr. John Capitman
Executive Director
Central Valley Health Policy Institute

Dr. Gary Feldman
Riverside County Health Officer
Director, Community Health Agency

Dr. George Flores
Senior Program Officer
The California Endowment

Dr. Mark Horton
California Department of Public Health

Dr. Francine Kaufman
Head of Diabetes, Endocrinology and Metabolism
Childrens Hospital Los Angeles
Former president of American Diabetes Association

Dr. Paul Simon
Director of Health Assessment & Epidemiology
LA County Department of Public Health

Ms. Mary Sammers
Nutrition Services/WIC Director
North County Health Services

Dr. Sarah Samuels
Samuels and Associates

Dr. Loel Solomon
National Director
Community Health Initiatives & Evaluation
Kaiser Permanente

Health Forecasting Model Development Advisory Committee

Dr. J. Scott Armstrong
Professor of Marketing
The Wharton School

Ms. Karen A. Bodenhorn
President and CEO
Center for Health Improvement

Dr. Richard J. Burton

County Health Officer
Placer County Department of Health

Dr. Gilberto Chavez
Associate Director and State Epidemiologist
California Department of Health Services

Dr. Eugene F. Fama
Professor of Finance
Graduate School of Business
University of Chicago

Mr. Gregory A. Franklin
Deputy Director
Health Information and Strategic Planning
California Department of Health Services

Dr. David Hayes-Bautista
Center for the Study of Latino Health & Culture

Dr. William Hinds
Department of Environmental Health Sciences
UCLA Fielding School of Public Health
Center for Occupational & Environmental Health

Dr. Yuling Hong
Director of Biostatistics & Epidemiology American Heart Association

Dr. Richard Joseph Jackson
Adjunct Professor
UC Berkeley School of Public Health
Former Director, CDC National Center for Environmental Health
Former California State Health Officer

Dr. Edward E. Leamer
Professor of Management, Economics and Statistics
Director, UCLA Anderson Forecast
UCLA Anderson School of Management

Mr. Burt Margolin
Former California State Assemblyman
Director of Public Policy
Berliner, Candon & Jimison

Dr. John Rolph
Professor of Business and Law
Marshall School of Business, USC

Dr. S. Leonard Syme
Professor of Epidemiology (Emeritus)
UC Berkeley School of Public Health

Dr. Steven M. Teutsch
Senior Director
Outcomes Research and Management
Merck & Co., Inc.

Dr. Michael C. Wolfson
Assistant Chief Statistician
Analysis and Development
Statistics Canada

Advisory Consultant:
Dr. Milton C. Weinstein

Professor of Health Policy, Management, and Biostatistics
Harvard School of Public Health

  Evidence-based model to support advocacy of public health, research, and programs