Health Forecasting at UCLA

Aging Population Health Forecasts

"The anticipated increase in the number of older persons will have dramatic consequences for public health, the health-care financing and delivery systems, informal caregiving, and pension systems. Although more attention has been given to population aging projections and their implications in developed countries, greater numbers of older adults and increasing chronic disease will place further strain on resources in countries where basic public health concerns (e.g., control of infectious diseases and maternal and child health) are yet to be addressed"  -CDC MMWR: Public Health and Aging Trends in Aging

The Community Health Simulation Model is able to reveal the impact of an aging population on health. This unique report forecasts costly preventable chronic diseases for seniors age 65 and older. The granularity of our model allows us to examine health outcomes by gender, age group, and race/ethnicity through the year 2040.


Our innovative model combines chronic disease health trends, social determinants of health, and health behaviors to forecast health outcomes for hospitals, cities, and communities in Southern California. The evidence-based decision support tool focuses on population health management using an algorithm to assess health risk changes over time. The model offers users an opportunity to examine current health status and identify future high-risk populations to effectively target resources.


Health forecasts enable cities, hospitals, health and planning departments, as well as community organizations to:

  • assess long-term health needs;
  • prioritize  resources by identifying high risk subgroups with greatest potential for investment impact;
  • increase advocacy and funding opportunities by describing and validating anticipated health outcomes; and
  • anticipate, prepare, and plan for healthier communities. 

If you want researchers to create a personalized Health Forecast Report based on your zip codes, please contact Project Analyst, Peggy Orenstein:




Los Angeles County

>Los Angeles County Department of Public Health-Service Planning Areas (SPAs) 1-8

  • Service Planning Area 1: Antelope Valley
  • Service Planning Area 2: San Fernando Valley
  • Service Planning Area 3: San Gabriel Valley
  • Service Planning Area 4: Metro Los Angeles
  • Service Planning Area 5: West
  • Service Planning Area 6: South
  • Service Planning Area 7: East
  • Service Planning Area 8: South Bay



Santa Monica



>Community Groups

The Be Well Physical Fitness and Nutrition Education Program for Seniors

                    Terra Health

  Evidence-based model to support advocacy of public health, research, and programs