Health Forecasting at UCLA

Community Health Forecast Reports

The Community Health Simulation Model combines chronic disease health trends, social determinants of health, and health behaviors to forecast health outcomes for hospitals, cities, and communities in Southern California. The evidence-based decision support tool focuses on population health management using an algorithm to assess health risk changes over time. The model offers users an opportunity to examine current health status and identify future high-risk populations to effectively target resources.


Full length Community Health reports include forecasts of preventable health conditions, health behaviors, and population projections through the year 2040.


Health forecasts enable cities, hospitals, health and planning departments, as well as community organizations to:

  • assess long-term health needs;
  • prioritize  resources by identifying high risk subgroups with greatest potential for investment impact;
  • increase advocacy and funding opportunities by describing and validating anticipated health outcomes; and
  • anticipate, prepare, and plan for healthier communities. 

If you want researchers to create a personalized Health Forecast Report based on your zip codes, please contact Project Analyst, Peggy Orenstein:                                                               





Los Angeles County


County-wide Reports


Los Angeles County

Department of Public Health

Service Planning Areas (SPAs)




 City Reports

  •  Inglewood
  •  Santa Monica

 Hospital Reports

  •  Glendale Adventist Medical Center



  California Community Foundation (CCF)







  Evidence-based model to support advocacy of public health, research, and programs