Health Forecasting at UCLA



National Institutes of Health

Assessing and forecasting Latino health disparities in relation to acculturation and comparing the potential for different interventions that promote healthy behaviors to improve the health of Latinos living in California




Placer County, California

Expanding the application of Health Forecasting to quantify the community health burdens related to air pollution using Placer County, California data and risk factors.

Issue Brief:

Forecasting Health Outcomes Related to Air Quality in Placer County




Robert Wood Johnson Foundation

Incorporating additional disease risk factors and outcomes into the forecasting model and applying the model to other states, begining with Arkansas and Wisconsin.



Looking into the Future in Three States with the UCLA Health Forecasting Tool: Using the UCLA Health Forecasting Tool to Support Effective Public Health Practice, Community Interventions, and Policy Decisions


Journal Article:

'Long-term Effects of Health Factor Modification in Milwaukee County'. Journal of Public Health Management and Practice. van Meijgaard, J., Shi, L., & Simon, P.A. (2012). Forthcoming


Forecasting Diabetes Prevalence in California: A Microsimulation. Preventing Chronic Disease 8 (4):A80. Shi, L., van Meijgaard, J., & Fielding, J. (2012).


Issue Brief:

Long-term Implications of Quitline Reach in Arkansas


The California Endowment

Expanding the capabilities of the Health Forecasting Tool by incorporating additional variables and focusing on interventions relevant to underserved individuals and communities in California.


Journal Article:

Assessing and Forecasting Population Health: Integrating Knowledge and Beliefs in a Comprehensive Framework. Public Health Reports 124.6:778-89. van Meijgaard, J., Fielding, J.E., &  Kominski, G.F. (2009).

Issue Briefs:

Air Pollution (Fine Particulate Matter) and Community Health in Boyle Heights

Air Pollution (Fine Particulate Matter) and Community Health in Central Long Beach


Aging Boomers, Healthy Latinos: Implications for California's Health Care Infrastructure

Trends and Forecast of Health and Economic Costs of Overweight and Obesity in California


Forecasting the Impact of an Aging Population on Medical Expenditures in California


UniHealth Foundation

Supporting the efforts of nonprofit hospitals to improve community health and comply with regulations to quantify community benefit by assessing current and future health status and forecasting the impact of evidence-based interventions on health outcomes in their catchment areas located within Los Angeles, Orange and San Bernardino Counties.



Los Angeles County Baseline Health Forecast Report (April 30, 2016)

Workshop Presentation:

Forecasting the Impact of Interventions for Community Benefit Planning (April 26, 2016)



The Health Forecasting Toolkit: Providing Evidence-based Data to Nonprofit Hospitals for Short- and Long-term Community Benefit Planning



California Community Foundation (May 13, 2015)


Forum: Past, Present, and Future of Mental Health in Los Angeles County (July 24, 2017)



2010 Demographic Catchment Area Profiles


Hospital Community Health Forecasts *Reports recently added





California Community Foundation

Provide technical assistance to community organizations and analyses for funders using health impact assessments, health forecasting and economic modeling to improve opportunities for health promotion and disease prevention


Workshop Presentation: 

Taking Action Using Data-Driven Health Planning Tools 

(November 1, 2016)


Decision-Support Tools and Opportunities to Improve Childhood Health and Education Outcomes While Reducing Crime

(November 9, 2016)


Population Health Forecasts to Support Strong Data-Driven Proposals

(June 30, 2017)

                     California Community Foundation




  Evidence-based model to support advocacy of public health, research, and programs