Health Forecasting at UCLA



Journal Articles

Cigarette Smoking and Abdominal Obesity: a Meta-analysis of Observational Studies. (2013)

Journal of Substance Abuse: doi:10.3109/14659891.2012.715227 

Authors: Lu Shi, Ruopeng An and Jeroen van Meijgaard


Long-term Effects of Health Factor Modification in Milwaukee County. (2013)

Journal of Public Health Management and Practice, 19(2), 133-138

Authors: Lu Shi, Jeroen van Meijgaard and Jonathan E. Fielding


Trends in Recreational Computer Use Among Latino Children in California. (2012)

Journal of Immigrant and Minority Health, DOI: 10.1007/s10903-012-9684-5

Authors: Jeroen van Meijgaard, Lu Shi and Paul Simon

Estimating Benefits of Past, Current and Future Reductions in Smoking Rates Using a  Comprehensive Model with Competing Causes of Death. (2012)

Preventing Chronic Disease Jul;9:E122. Epub 2012 Jul 5
Authors: Jeroen van Meijgaard & Jonathan E. Fielding


The Association Between Acculturation and Recreational Computer Use Among Latino Adolescents in California. (2012)

Pediatric Obesity 7, e33–e36

Authors: Lu Shi, Jeroen van Meijgaard and Paul Simon


Forecasting Diabetes Prevalence in California: A Microsimulation. (2011)

Preventing Chronic Disease 8(4):A80.

Authors: Lu Shi, Jeroen van Meijgaard and Jonathan E. Fielding


Substantial Decline in Sugar-Sweetened Beverage Consumption Among California's Children and Adolescents. (2010)

International Journal of General Medicine 2010.3: 221-224

Authors: Lu Shi and Jeroen van Meijgaard


Assessing and Forecasting Population Health: Integrating Knowledge and Beliefs in a Comprehensive Framework. (2009)

Public Health Reports 124.6: 778-89

Authors: Jeroen van Meijgaard, Jonathan Fielding and Gerald Kominski

Issue Briefs

Air Pollution and Community Health in Central Long Beach (October 2012)

This is the second in a series of three reports examining the impact of air pollution on health at the community-level. Like Boyle Heights, residents of Central Long Beach are at particularly high risk for health problems related to PM2.5, also known as fine particulate matter. Short- and long-term exposure to PM2.5 can lead to poor health and affect a person's educational and income opportunities, as well as overall quality of life. If PM2.5 levels were reduced to the California clean air standard over the next 20 years residents would experience significant health benefits.


 Air Pollution and Community Health in Boyle Heights (March 2012)

Exposure to poor air quality is associated with a wide array of negative health effects, including respiratory disease, lung and heart conditions, even early death. PM2.5 is comprised of toxic particles 1/30th the width of an average human hair and is especially harmful given its small size. Boyle Heights, located in the heart of Los Angeles' urban area, is a community disproportionately affected by high levels of PM2.5. This issue brief examines the impact of a reduction in PM2.5 on direct and indirect health outcomes over a 20-year time period.


Long-term Implications of Quitline Reach in Arkansas (March 2011)

In recent years Arkansas has made considerable progress in reducing its smoking prevalence. Among other strategies, Quitline has played an important role in helping current smokers successfully quit cigarette smoking. Funding for Quitline directly translates into reaching smokers that are interesting in quitting, and thus a reduction in smoking prevalence. This issue brief discusses the potential impact of various Quitline funding scenarios on smoking prevalence and disease-free life years gained.


Forecasting Health Outcomes Related to Air Quality for Placer County (June 2010)

Poor air quality has been linked to a number of adverse health effects. Among other pollutants, increased levels of ozone and particulate matter have been shown to impede lung development in children, exacerbate and perhaps help initiate childhood asthma, and produce a range of other respiratory symptoms and chronic conditions. This issue brief discusses the potential impact of future air quality scenarios on a number of health outcomes for Placer County, and discusses the policy implications of these findings.


How Do Improvements in Physical Activity Compare to Better Clinical Coronary Heart Disease Management (August 2009)

Coronary Heart Disease is largely preventable through lifestyle modification and additional physical activity. Yet we devote more resources to the clinical management of those already have CHD. This issue brief discusses how the changes in physical activity in the general population compare to continued improvements in clinical management of those who already have CHD.


Aging Boomers, Healthy Latinos: Implications for California's Health Care Infrastructure (February 2008)

A rapid rise in the older population will dramatically increase the demand for health care services. Meanwhile the Latino population has good health outcomes, and is relatively young. Thus the growing Latino population will initially put far less strain on the state's health care infrastructure than the aging Baby Boomers, providing an opportunity to strengthen the health care infrastructure by investing in the health and education of young Latinos.


Forecasting the Impact of an Aging Population on Medical Expenditures in California (October 2007)

This issue brief discusses the impact of the aging of the population on total medical expenditures in California, as well as the distribution of medical expenditures across age groups. The brief indicates that seniors aged 65 and older are expected to account for nearly 50% of total health expenditures by the year 2040.


Trends and Forecast of Health and Economic Costs of Overweight and Obesity in California (July 2007)

This issue brief finds that due to the increases of overweight and obesity trends since 1985, California's mortality increased an additional 5,687 in 2005 and by 2025 we forecast an additional 23,000. Similarly, direct personal medical expenditures are projected to increase by an additional $27 billion totaling $319 billion in 2025 if we continue our upward overweight and obesity trend.



March 2012 - Robert Wood Johnson Foundation Program Results Report

The findings of Health Forecasting research, carried out with the assistance from a Robert Wood Johnson Foundation grant, are detailed in the report, "Looking into the future in three states with the UCLA Health Forecasting Tool". The research, using the Health Forecasting Tool, includes multiple risk factors and various policy scenarios to forecast future health outcomes. The analysis focuses on the future impact of specific programs and policies on public health and health disparities in three states: California, Arkansas, and Wisconsin.


Health Forecasting Documentation

Forecasts from the UCLA Health Forecasting Model are based on the application of health risk information from the peer-reviewed research literature to publicly available demographic and health statistics. Methods used to generate forecasts are detailed in the documentation listed below.


Health Forecasting Overview (pdf)


Health Forecasting Tool Feasibility - 2003 (pdf)


Health Forecasting Model Development - 2004 (pdf)


Health Forecasting Community Needs Assessment - 2006 (pdf)


Technical Working Document - 2008 Draft (pdf)




  Evidence-based model to support advocacy of public health, research, and programs