Health Forecasting at UCLA

Specific Studies

Community Benefits Study- Los Angeles County (July 2012)

 

Quitline Smoking Cessation Program Study- Arkansas (February 2011)

 

Coronary Heart Disease Study- California (August 2009)

 

Obesity Trend Analysis- California (June 2007)

 

Air Quality and Health Outcomes- Placer County, California (November 2009)

 


Community Benefits Study- Los Angeles County (July 2012)

This study, sponsored by UniHealth Foundation, provides evidence-based health forecasts to assist hospitals design and implement  short- and long-term strategic community benefit plans. Using the Health Forecasting Tool hospitals can assess the current health status of the population in their catchment area and project changes in population and chronic disease trends. Data can be tailored to specific hospital service areas and can be stratified according to race/ethnicity, age group, gender, education level, and/or income.

 

Topics include:

  • health behaviors (smoking, physical activity, Body-Mass-Index Status)
  • morbidity (hypertension, diabetes and related outcomse, stroke, and coronary heart disease)
  • mortality (all-cause, coronary heart disease and stroke related deaths)
  • population figures.

The Health Forecasting Toolkit, available by clicking here, is a resource designed to help Community Benefit Department staff navigate the Health Forecasting Tool.

 

If you would like to create a custom community health profile, need technical assistance or would like more information about scheduling a presentation, please contact Peggy J. Vadillo (310) 206-7820 or via e-mail: peggyvadillo@ucla.edu

 

Quitline Smoking Cessation Program Study- Arkansas (February 2011)

 

This analysis provides the results for the February 2011 issue brief Long-term Implications of Quitline Reach in Arkansas. In recent years Arkansas has made considerable progress in reducing its smoking prevalence. Among other strategies, Quitline has played an important role in helping current smokers successfully quit cigarette smoking. Funding for Quitline directly translates into reaching smokers that are interesting in quitting, and thus a reduction in smoking prevalence. In this study we estimate the potential impact of various Quitline funding scenarios on smoking prevalence and disease-free life years gained. 

 

Core Assumptions:

  1. Quitline users are 7.5 times as likely as non-users to successfully quit tobacco smoking
  2. There is no smoking initiation after Age 26
  3. Scenario 1. “Budget cut” scenario: Starting in 2011, Quitline reach in Arkansas will decreases to 2% from the current level of 4% and then remain at 2%
  4. Scenario 2. “Status quo” scenario: Quitline reach will stay at the current level of 4%
  5. Scenario 3. “CDC goal” scenario: Starting in 2011, Quitline reach will increase to 6% as the level recommended by Arkansas Department of Health and CDC
  6. Scenario 4. “Best performance” scenario:in 2011, Quitline reach will increase to 6% and will gradually increase to 8% in 2021 by a 0.2% percent point increase per year

Coronary Heart Disease Study- California (August 2009)

This analysis provides the results for the August 2009 issue brief How do Improvements in Physical Activity Compare to Better Clinical Coronary Heart Disease Management?

 

Obesity Trend Analysis- California (June 2007)

This analysis provides the results for the July 2007 issue brief Trends and Forecast of Health and Economic Costs of Overweight and Obesity in California 

 

Air Quality and Health Outcomes- Placer County (November 2009)

This analysis provides the results for the June 2010 issue brief Forecasting Health Outcomes related to Air Quality for Placer County

 

Placer Study tutorial (pdf) - overview of the variables and topics available for analysis. 

 

 

 

 

 

 


  Evidence-based model to support advocacy of public health, research, and programs