Health Forecasting at UCLA

What's New

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February 2017- Introducing Community Health Snapshots

The one page series of Community Health Snapshots summarize full-length health forecast reports. These visual communication tools highlight problematic trends and opportunities to improve health. The Snapshots are reader friendly and can be easily printed and distributed to busy elected officials, community groups, and anyone who would like a synoposis of future preventable chronic conditions. Compare and contrast health disparities among different communities, cities, and County of Los Angeles.

View Community Health Snapshots


January 2017- New Aging Population Health Forecast Report: The Be Well Program for Seniors

The national award winning 'Be Well' Program is a senior fitness and nutrition education program that started in the City of Inglewood, California. Program participants have improved physical and mental health outcomes. We forecasted chronic conditions and population growth for seniors age 65 and older in their service area and uncovered some startling results. Read the report


January 2017- New Aging Population Health Forecast: California Community Foundation-Centinela Valley

As baby-boomers age, the retiree population will grow significantly and health care needs will change. How will the health status of an aging population shift in the next twenty years? View report


January 2017- New Community Health Forecast Report: California Community Foundation-Centinela Valley

California Community Foundation works to strengthen Los Angeles communities through many activities including health improvement. The report covers the Centinela Valley, a portion of South Los Angeles. View the report


November 2016- Workshop: 'Decision-Support Tools and Opportunities to Improve Childhood Health and Education Outcomes While Reducing Crime'

This workshop, supported by California Community Foundation, will compare juvenile justice and obesity prevention interventions on outcomes, such as high school graduation, crime, obesity, substance abuse and diabetes. View presentation slides

November 2016- Workshop: 'Taking Action Using Data-Driven Health Planning Tools' 

The workshop focused on various applications and methos to use health forecasts for grant-writing. The City of Inglewood's Be Well Exercise and Nutrition Program for Seniors was featured. They described how they use and plan to use health forecasts for fundraising and sustainability. This workshop was made possible by California Community FoundationView presentation slides


June 2016- New Community Health Report: Cities of Bellflower and Paramount

Health forecasts provide city planning departments, councilmembers and local community groups the opportunity to foresee the future health status of their cities. The forecasts help city staff to anticipate health and population trends in order to effectively plan resource allocation. View report


May 2016- New Community Health Report: Los Angeles County Baseline Health Forecast 

Read the latest report examining the future health status of Los Angeles County through the year 2040. The report includes preventable chronic conditions, such as heart disease, diabetes, and high blood pressure as well as health behaviors, such as smoking, physical activity and weight status. Examine these conditions by race/ethnicity, education, and age groups. View report


April 2016- Workshop: 'Forecasting the Impact of Evidence-Based Interventions for Community Benefit Planning'

Researchers presented the results of the Health Forecasting's model's effect on diabetes, smoking, and asthma following implementation of evidence-based programs in Los Angeles County. View presentation slides


December 2015- New Partnership with California Community Foundation

Health Forecasting receives a grant from California Community Foundation to provide health forecasts for the Centinela Valley.

October 2015- Center for Health Advancement Website Now Live

Learn more about our Center via our website:


May 2015- Center for Health Advancement Presentation at the California Community Foundation

Health Forecasting Director Dr. Jonathan Fielding unveils the latest Center projects at a community meeting. View photos and presentation here.


February 2015- Health Forecasting Presentation at the American College of Preventive Medicine Conference

Read our poster presentation about the impact of hospital based heart disease interventions in Los Angeles County. View poster.


January 2015- Orange County Health Forecast Reports Now Online :

Want to know the future of health in Orange County? View report online.

September 2014- Forecasts for Los Angeles County Service Planning Areas Available:

Access forecasts by Service Planning Area: SPA Health and Population Forecasts      


August 2014- Riverside County Hospital Forecasts Available Online:

View health forecasting reports for nonprofit Riverside County hospitals. Click here: Hospital Catchment Area Health Forecasts


July 2014- Los Angeles County Hospital Forecasts Available Online:

Access health forecasting reports for Los Angeles County hospitals. Click here to view reports: Hospital Catchment Area Health Forecasts


May 2014- San Bernardino County Hospital Forecasts Available Online:

Access health forecasting reports for San Bernardino County hospitals. Click here to view reports: Hospital Catchment Area Health Forecasts 


January 2014- Demographic Reports Posted Online:

View service planning area population estimates for hospitals in Southern California counties. These reports lay the foundation for community-level health forecasts for each hospital. Using figures from the 2010 Census and American Community Survey as a baseline, researchers project out demography, health outcomes and the impact of interventions on the community population through 20352010 Demographic Catchment Area Profiles 

October 2013- Newsletter Published

Read our latest newsletter by clicking this link: October Newsletter

August 2013-Funding Awarded

Kaiser Permanente recently awarded the Center for Health Advancement a grant to 'Efficiently combine multiple sources of survey data to improve local area estimates of health and forecasting health outcomes for Los Angeles County'. The year long grant will help advance new techniques in small area health estimation and forecasting.


August 2013- Updated Toolkit Now Available

How does forecasting health enable hospitals to anticipate, prepare, and plan for healthier communities? Learn about the Health Forecasting Tool and how it can help nonprofit hospitals with community benefit planning and health needs assessments. View Health Forecasting Toolkit.


June 2013- Article Published

Cigarette Smoking and Abdominal Obesity: a Meta-analysis of Observational StudiesJournal of Substance Abuse: doi:10.3109/14659891.2012.715227. (2013).

Authors: Lu Shi, Ruopeng An, & Jeroen van Meijgaard


May 2013- Health Forecasting now housed at the UCLA Center for Health Advancement

The newly established research center at the Fielding School of Public Health provides enhanced analysis and evidence based information to help policy makers decide which policies and programs can best improve health and reduce health disparities. For more information,please visit the UCLA Centers and Programs Website.

March 2013- Newsletter Published

Read our March newsletter by clicking this link: Health Forecasting March Newsletter

February 2013- Article Published

Long-term Effects of Health Factor Modification in Milwaukee County. Journal of Public Health Management and Practice 19(2), 133-138. (2013).

Authors: Lu Shi, Jeroen van Meijgaard, & Jonathan E. Fielding

January 2013 - Resource Guide Available Online

Access the Health Forecasting Toolkit on our website. The Toolkit is a user-friendly introductory guide and includes an overview of the tool, step-by-step instructions, and an in-depth methodology section.


November 2012 - Funding Awarded

Received a three year grant award from the UniHealth Foundation to support nonprofit hospital community benefit planning.


October 2012- Quarterly Newsletter Published

Read the Quarterly Newsletter online

October 2012- Issue Brief Published:

Air Pollution and Community Health in Central Long Beach

Residents of Central Long Beach are at particularly high risk for health problems related to PM2.5 or fine particulate matter. Using the Health Forecasting model, we show how reducing PM2.5 levels would improve health in the community.

July 2012- Journal Article Published

Estimating benefits of past, current and future reductions in smoking rates using a comprehensive model with competing causes of death, Preventing Chronic Disease 2012;9:110295. (2012).
Authors: Jeroen van Meijgaard & Jonathan E. Fielding

July 2012- Journal Article Published

Trends in recreational computer use among children in California, Journal of Immigrant and Minority Health, DOI: 10.1007/s10903-012-9684-5. (2012).

Authors: Jeroen van Meijgaard, Lu Shi, and Paul Simon


June 2012- Journal Article Published

The association between acculturation and recreational computer use among Latino adolescents in CaliforniaPediatric Obesity 7, e33–e36. (2012).
Authors: Lu Shi, Jeroen van Meijgaard, and Paul Simon


May 2012 - Quarterly Newsletter Published

Read our May newsletter online or subscribe to receive our quarterly newsletter 


March 2012- New Report Published

The Robert Wood Johnson Foundation published the Health Forecasting Program Results Report. View the report in the public health section of the RWJF website: "Looking into the future in three states with the UCLA Health Forecasting Tool".


March 2012- Issue Brief Published:

Air Pollution and Community Health in Boyle Heights

This brief examines various air quality scenarios for a pollutant known as fine particulate matter, or PM2.5, in the urban community of Boyle Heights. Using the Health Forecasting Tool, we forecast direct and indirect health outcomes over a 20-year time period.

February 2012 - Health Forecasting Tool Update

Improved feature in the Health Forecasting Tool allows users to create personalized community profiles using the recently updated Define a Population feature. Users can view customized data for any of the available studies in the Health Forecasting Tool such as, diabetes, obesity, heart disease, among others.


October 2011 - Conference Presentations

Health Forecast researchers will be at the Annual Meeting of the American Public Health Association in Washington, DC - Lu Shi will present our work on the Long-term Impact of Quitline on Smoking Prevalence and Health Outcomes, and Kara MacLeod will present on Neighborhood Economic Status and Physical Activity in Los Angeles County


September 2011 - Quarterly Newsletter Published

Read our September newsletter online


September 2011 - Health Forecasting Tool Expansion

Added a basic reporting function to the Health Forecasting Tool. With this new feature users can create quick, click-and-point custom charts for a given population. Graphs drawn from each study focus on one topic, such as total medical expenditures or life expectancy, and one category, which include demographic variables and health characteristics. Access basic reporting

June 2011 - Quarterly Newsletter Published

View the June newsletter online.

June 2011 - Journal Article Published

Forecasting diabetes prevalence in California: a microsimulation, Preventing Chronicic Disease 2011;8(4):A80. (2011).

Authors: Lu Shi, Jeroen van Meijgaard, and Jonathan E. Fielding

May 2011 - The California Endowment Healthy Communities Air Quality Data Available on Health Forecasting Tool

Added to the Health Forecasting Tool were air quality figures for the 14 communities in The California Endowment's Building Healthy Communities Initiative. Ozone and PM2.5 air quality data were obtained from the California Air Resources Board. Additional metrics developed by the American Lung Association for their 2011 State of the Air report are also included in the study. The impact of air quality on various health outcomes, such as asthma related emergency room visits, and indirect outcomes, such as school and work loss days were estimated using a comprehensive analysis by the federal EPA (BenMAP). To access this information, visit the Get Started section and select the study: TCE Places (May 2011)


April 2011 - Los Angeles County Population Projections Available

Created a Los Angeles County Population Series for 2010-2050 based on Census 2010 counts and revised estimates for Los Angeles fertility and migration as compared to 2003-2004 estimates from the California Department of Finance. Review estimates for the county and sub-populations with the reporting facility and select the study: Los Angeles - Population Projections (April 2011)


April 2011 - California Population Projections Available

Updated California Population Series for 2010-2050 based on Census 2010 counts and revised estimates for California fertility and migration. Review this model output or to obtain estimates for sub-populations use the reporting facility and select the study: California - Population Projections (April 2011)

March 2011 - Quarterly Newsletter Published

Read the March edition of the newsletter online.


March 2011 - Issue Brief Published: 

Long-term implications of Quitline reach in Arkansas

In recent years Arkansas has made considerable progress in reducing its smoking prevalence. Among other strategies, Quitline has played an important role in helping current smokers successfully quit cigarette smoking. Funding for Quitline directly translates into reaching smokers that are interesting in quitting, and thus a reduction in smoking prevalence. This issue brief discusses the potential impact of various Quitline funding scenarios on smoking prevalence and disease-free life years gained.


August 2010 - Funding Awarded

Awarded NIH funding under PAR-07-380 for "Acculturation and physical activity: Forecasting and improving Latino health"


August 2010 - Journal Article Published

Substantial decline in sugar-sweetened beverage consumption among California's children and adolescents. International Journal of General Medicine 2010.3: 221-224. (2010).

Authors: Lu Shi and Jeroen van Meijgaard


June 2010 - Issue Brief Published

Forecasting Health Outcomes Related to Air Quality for Placer County

Poor air quality has been linked to a number of adverse health effects. Among other pollutants, increased levels of ozone and particulate matter have been shown to impede lung development in children, exacerbate and perhaps help initiate childhood asthma, and produce a range of other respiratory symptoms and chronic conditions. This issue brief discusses the potential impact of future air quality scenarios on a number of health outcomes for Placer County, and discusses the policy implications of these findings.

October 2009 - Journal Article Published

Assessing and Forecasting Population Health: Integrating Knowledge and Beliefs in a Comprehensive Framework. Public Health Reports 124.6: 778-89. (2009).

Authors: Jeroen van Meijgaard, Jonathan E. Fielding, and Gerald Komiski

August 2009 - Issue Brief Published

How Do Improvements in Physical Activity Compare to Better Clinical Coronary Heart Disease Management

Coronary Heart Disease (CHD) is largely preventable through lifestyle modification and additional physical activity. Yet, we devote more resources to the clinical management of those who already have CHD. This issue brief discusses how the changes in physical activity in the general population compare to continued improvements in clinical management of those who already have CHD.


January 2009 - Funding Awarded

Received funding from The California Endowment for "Health Forecasting: Mobilizing communities by providing access to evidence-based public health".


April 2008 - Funding Awarded

Contract with Placer County, funded by The California Endowment, for "Expanding the application of Health Forecasting to quantify the community health burdens related to air pollution using Placer county data and risk factors".


March 2008 - Funding Awarded

Received funding from UniHealth Foundation for "Population Health Forecasting: Supporting hospitals and other community organizations in assessing current and future characteristics and needs of local communities".


February 2008 - Issue Brief Published

Aging Boomers, Healthy Latinos: Implications for California's Health Care Infrastructure

A rapid rise in the older population will dramatically increase the demand for health care services. Meanwhile the Latino population has good health outcomes, and is relatively young. Thus the growing Latino population will initially put far less strain on the state's health care infrastructure than the aging Baby Boomers, providing an opportunity to strengthen the health care infrastructure by investing in the health and education of young Latinos.


January 2008 - Funding Awarded

Received funding from the Robert Wood Johnson Foundation for "Developing a Population Health Forecasting Model to support effective public health practice".


October 2007 - Issue Brief Published 

Forecasting the IImpact of an Aging Population on Medical Expenditures in California

This issue brief discusses the impact of the aging population on total medical expenditures in California, as well as the distribution of medical expenditures across age groups. The brief indicates that seniors aged 65 and older are expected to account for nearly 50% of total health expenditures by the year 2040.


July 2007 - Issue Brief Published 

Trends and Forecast of Health and Economic Costs of Overweight and Obesity in California

This issue brief finds that due to the increases of overweight and obesity trends since 1985, California's mortality increased an additional 5,687 in 2005 and by 2025 we forecast an additional 23,000. Similarly, direct personal medical expenditures are projected to increase by an additional $27 billion totaling $319 billion in 2025 if we continue our upward overweight and obesity trend.




  Evidence-based model to support advocacy of public health, research, and programs